The Analysis of House Prices and the Stance of Monetary Policy in the Republic of Kazakhstan
Keywords:
real effective exchange rate, inflation, the money supply, the housing market, consumer price index, monetary policy shocksAbstract
The work estimates the influence of monetary policy on actual growth of prices per square meter of housing in the Republic of Kazakhstan, using a data set comprising 76 quarters for the period from 1994:01 to 2012:04. Most aspects of the research are defined from statistical data on the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The increment rate of the CPI ratio, the index of actual effective exchange rate for a group of CIS and non-CIS countries (24 countries), the average monthly rated salary per one employee, the М3 money supply, and rated house prices (1st, 2nd, 3rd , 4th class of comfort) have been calculated. A comparative analysis of the consequences of monetary policy options for the Republic of Kazakhstan with data for the Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus, shows that monetary policy in the Republic of Kazakhstan meets the standards of the leading countries.References
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pp. 788–829. – 2003.
2 2. Iacoviello, M., 2005. House prices, borrowing constraints, and monetary policy in the business cycle // American Economic
Review 95. – pp. 739–764. – 2005.
3 3. Case K., Shiller R., Quigley J. Comparing wealth effects: the stock market versus the housing market // Advances in
Macroeconomics 5. – pp. 1–32. – 2005.
4 4. Iacoviello M, Neri S. Housing market spillovers: evidence from an estimated DSGE model // Boston College Department of Economics. Working Paper No. 659. – 2008.
5 5. Vargas-Silva C. Monetary policy and the US housing market: a VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions // Journal of Macroeconomics 30. – pp. 977–990. – 2008(a)
6 6. Vargas-Silva C. The effect of monetary policy on housing: a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach //
Applied Economics Letters 15. – pp. 749–752. – 2008(b)
7 7. Borio C.E.V., Kennedy N., Prowse S.D. Exploring aggregate asset price fluctuations across countries: measurement,
determinants, and monetary policy implications // Bank for International Settlements. Economics Paper No. 40. – 1994.
8 8. Bernanke B.S., Gertler M. Inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policy transmission // The Journal of Economic Perspectives 9. – pp. 27–48. – 1995.
9 9. Bai J., Ng S. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models // Econometrica. – pp. 191–221. – №70 –2002.
10 10. Kilian L. Small-sample confidence intervals for impulse response functions // Review of Economics and Statistics. –
pp. 218–230. - №80. – 1998.
11 11. Kasai N, Gupta R. Financial liberalization and the effectiveness of monetary policy on house prices in South Africa.
Department of Economics, University of Pretoria. Working Paper No. 200803. – 2008.
12 12. Ivashchenko A.S. Impact of monetary shocks on macroeconomic dynamics [Electronic Resource] // Access mode:
http://mmaetst.narod.ru/archieve/251110_seminar_ai.pdf.
13 13. Drobyshevsky S.M., Trunin P.V., Kamenskih M.V. Analysis of the rules of monetary policy of the Bank of Russia in 1999-
2007. // Institute of the Economy in transitional period. Working paper №127. – 88p. – 2009.
14 14. Leontieva E.A. Modelling the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomic performance in the case of the Russian
Federation: PhD thesis: 08.00.13 // Lomonosov Moscow State University. – 23 p. – 2010.
15 15. Ishuova Zh.Sh., Kondybayeva S.K. The main trends and patterns of economic policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan // V-th
International Scientific and Practical Conference "Problems of formation the new economy of the XXI century". – Kiev, 21-22
December 2012. – pp. 34–36.
16 16. Ishuova Zh.Sh. Analysis and forecasting of the monetary policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the basis of DSGE
model // Kazakhstan Spektr. – №31 (432). – pp. 41-48. – 2012.
17 17. Kondybayeva S.K., Ishuova Zh. Sh. The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in the Republic of Kazakhstan:
a vector autoregression analysis / / World Applied Sciences Journal. – 2013. – №22. (10). – P. 1384-1394.
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