DOES CURRENCY VOLATILITY AFFECT NON-PERFORMING LOANS? EVIDENCE FROM THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR

Abstract

This study aims to econometrically investigate the relationship between non-performing loans and Euro and USD indices in Turkey. The data set of the study consists of the Turkish banking sector non-performing loan ratio and Euro and American Dollar (USD) indices variables for the period 01/2003-09/2023. Time series analyses were used to test the relationship between the variables. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests were applied to the data. Since the series became stationary at different levels, the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test) test, one of the cointegration tests, was applied. Afterward, whether there is causality between the variables and if there is a causality relationship, the determination of the direction of causality is mutually tested with the "Granger Causality" method. According to the results of the research, a cointegration relationship was found between the non-performing loan ratios of the Turkish banking system and the Euro and USD indices. In the long run, it is concluded that a 1% increase in the Euro index is associated with a 2.93% decrease in non-performing loan ratios. On the other hand, in the short run, Euro and USD index values have no effect on non-performing loan ratios. According to the results of the Granger causality test, a unidirectional Granger causality relationship was detected between non-performing loan ratios and the Euro index. A similar unidirectional causality relationship was also found between the Euro index and the USD index.

Keywords: Non-performing Loans, Exchange Rate, ARDL Boundary Test, Granger Causality Test